I'm still able to hope

Ten years have passed since a blistering storm of hate in Gujarat extinguished more than 2,000 lives, and destroyed countless more. It was a moment which altered the course of innumerable lives, including even my own.
I look back on those years with sorrow, with anger, but still also with hope. Ten years ago as a serving officer, I wrote of my anguish at the sheer cruelty of the slaughter in Gujarat, the complicity of my then colleagues in the civil and police administration in the massacre, the refusal of the state to even establish relief camps, and the blinding social and political climate of hate.

Today much of that grief persists, because of the many great failures of these 10 years after the massacre: the profound social failures of reconciliation and forgiveness; the legal failures of justice; and the political failures of democratic accountability. Those responsible for mass crimes and continuing persecution of minorities stand unpunished and defiant. I mourn also that leaders of industry, political parties, even social movements, celebrate the administration in Gujarat. They claim that the ‘bigger picture’ is of economic growth, administrative efficiency and alleged financial probity, rendering insignificant the ‘smaller picture’ of mere massacre and profiling.
I have not met a single survivor who has been able to regain the levels of living which they enjoyed before the carnage. Memories of how life was before the storm haunt them each day; of all that they lost that can never be reclaimed. Around half the 200,000 people who fled murderous mobs and burning homes 10 years ago can never return to the lands of their birth. Entire villages have been ‘cleansed’ of their erstwhile Muslim residents.
Around 30,000 persons subsist in small bare tenements in relief colonies built by mainly Muslim organisations as temporary settlements of refuge, but now their permanent homes. Others who could afford it have moved into the safety of numbers in crowded Muslim ghettoes. They were forced to sell their lands and properties at distress rates to their Hindu neighbours. The state remains openly hostile to these Muslim settlements, and discriminates in basic public services like drinking water, roads, electrification and sewerage.
For those who could return to their homes, life after the storm is one of segregation, isolation and penury. They live as second-class citizens, shunned by their neighbours. They are no longer welcome at weddings and funerals. People employ them only when there is no one else available. And yet, such is the resilience of the human spirit, that although they suffer hate, injustice, betrayal and loss, they still soldier on. The ache is always there, but survivors immerse themselves in the simple struggles of everyday living.
Their wounds could heal with demonstrations of remorse and justice. But the original slaughter is matched by the determination — sustained for 10 years — of both the state and their neighbours to block the efforts of the victimised people to rebuild their old lives; to refuse to express regret; and to strenuously subvert justice. Chief minister Narendra Modi refuses — even risking his political future — to apologise even once for the carnage. The only men in khaki who are punished by the state government are those who bravely strive for justice.
A widow has petitioned the highest court of the land to prosecute the CM for complicity in slaying her husband. A police officer testifies that the CM instructed his officers that the mass violence should be permitted to continue. Just the fact that the massacre and arson persisted for many days, even weeks, is in itself complete evidence, proving beyond doubt the complicity of the state at the highest levels. I have observed and handled many communal riots in my years as a civil servant, and I am certain that no riot can continue even beyond a few hours unless the political and administrative leadership wants that it should continue. And there are few crimes as great as to betray one’s duty to protect people from violence targeted at them only because of their identity.
Many of us have stood these many years in solidarity with the survivors who choose to fight for justice in the country’s courts. Even so, most criminal cases eventually collapse, and the men charged with rape, arson and mass murder walk free. Impunity remains the norm in communal violence. Police investigations are artfully slipshod, public prosecutors behave more like defence attorneys, witnesses and complainants are openly intimidated and coerced sometimes even in the corridors of the courts, and judges often do not hide their sympathies for the accused.
On the other hand, for nine of the 10 years since the train burned in Godhra, the men charged with setting the compartment ablaze languished in jail, until they were finally acquitted because there was no evidence against them, even by the much looser standards of anti-terror laws. Freed after incarceration for nine years for no crime, their families, their lives, their spirit are permanently destroyed. Perhaps they were more fortunate than those who were killed in fake police encounters, including a 19-year-old girl.
Yet I am still able to hope more than I did those 10 years ago. Few expected them to do so, but the people of this country have shown the wisdom and humanity to reject the politics of hate nationally, although they did not in Gujarat. Even during the carnage, many more people saved lives than those who took them. Gujarat abounds with heroes. Police officers, journalists, writers, artistes, judges at every level, and peace and justice workers, have fought hatred and injustice incessantly these 10 years. And most of them do not belong to the community which was targeted. Each stood tall, often at great personal cost, bravely defending our Constitution and our collective humanity.
It is because of them that I still hope. Harsh Mander is director, Centre for Equity Studies. The views expressed by the author are personal.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/818019.aspx

The same old show

There is surely a smidgen of irony in the fact that an industry that sells entertainment, whose very name conjures up entertainment, cannot bring itself to make its annual awards show more entertaining. Hollywood's ritual of self-congratulation, otherwise known as the Oscar awards, has become the most boring show on the planet. This isn't about the low-rent stand-up-comedy patter that kicks off the evening, a clutch of insider jokes carefully calibrated so as to not really offend anyone in attendance. This is a harmless enough crime. The real offence is in the utter predictability of the prizes. Sitting through the three-and-a-half hours leading to the announcement for Best Picture has begun to feel like going through a 1000-page book when someone's already revealed the ending. Was anyone really surprised when The Artist, a slight but charming ode not just to silent cinema but to Hollywood itself, left its competition in the dust with five wins? (It won Best Picture, Actor, Director, Costume Design and Musical Score. Martin Scorsese's much-lauded Hugo, also harking back to silent cinema, equalled this count, but with a string of less-prestigious awards in the technical categories, including Best Cinematography and Visual Effects).

The problem lies with the interminable stretch of honours announced in what has come to be known as “awards season.” First, the various critics' circles, like the National Board of Review, have their ceremonies. By the end of these announcements, there is already some sense of consensus, and this is only confirmed by the Golden Globes (awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association) and the BAFTAs (the British Academy of Film and Television Arts). And what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences do, essentially, is stamp their seal of approval on these awards. About the only award that quivered with an iota of suspense was the one for Best Actress, where Viola Davis was expected to win for The Help. (Meryl Streep won, instead, forThe Iron Lady.) Otherwise, it would have made no difference if they'd announced the list of winners earlier and the show had simply focused on their showing up to collect the trophies. Stifling one of many yawns, several viewers no doubt looked back fondly at the time Shakespeare in Love came out of nowhere to snatch the Best Picture trophy seen as belonging to Saving Private Ryan, or when Marisa Tomei won Best Supporting Actress for her flamboyantly comic turn in My Cousin Vinny, beating such luminaries as Vanessa Redgrave and Judy Davis. Were these upsets deserved? Perhaps not. But no one will deny that they made a stodgy evening a lot more interesting.

Keywords: Oscar awards, Hollywood, presentation ceremony, Golden Globes, BAFTAs
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/article2939322.ece

Back to backchannel

Resumption of talks with Islamabad is welcome, even more so given Pakistan’s instability

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s go-ahead to the resumption of backchannel talks with Pakistan is a welcome step in the right direction. As this newspaper reported, India’s Satinder Lambah and former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan Riaz Mohammed Khan have met once over the last few months and are in regular contact. Pakistan’s civilian government and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani have been pitching for talks for a year. These talks were designed with Kashmir in mind and, this time, too, the envoys from the two sides will discuss primarily Kashmir in addition to other bilateral matters. The backchannel talks played a very important role in India-Pakistan diplomacy during the Musharraf years. As a leaked US diplomatic cable revealed last September, the two countries were close to reaching a “non-territorial solution” to Kashmir, which would allow freedom of movement and trade.

Even now, India would like an acknowledgment from the Pakistani side of the understanding reached under former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and the progress made in bilateral relations then. However, not only had the backchannel talks been on hold after Musharraf’s exit — under a new government and a new army chief — but Islamabad is not keen on associating itself with that legacy today. But the talks, as Singh rightly believes, can do no harm. Rather, they can ease a lot of other issues, including the peace proposals discussed with Musharraf. As it happens, the Pakistani cabinet is scheduled to take its “final” decision on the negative list in trade with India on February 29. If trade were to open up, a whole new dimension of opportunities would be added to the relationship. Eventually, the backchannel diplomacy can help discuss Kashmir and Afghanistan too.

Nevertheless, patience is India’s great virtue in dealing with Pakistan and the backchannel conversation has to frame itself within its own opportunities and limitations. While New Delhi has doubts about the Pakistan military’s interest in and support for the civilian government’s agenda, the primary problem is the uncertainty about what is happening in Pakistan. With Gilani’s troubles with the supreme court and the military, the question of the civilian government’s survival casts a shadow over everything else. But that instability and unpredictability are all the more reason India should establish as many lines of communication with Pakistan as possible.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/back-to-backchannel/917584/0

Mine, All Mine

A merger is Anil Agarwal’s first step to creating a resource giant of global size

    Anil Agarwal-controlled Sesa Goa, India’s largest exporter of iron ore, will absorb another group company, Sterlite, in an all-share transaction. Sterlite shareholders are happy: giving up five shares of Sterlite for three shares of Sesa Goa makes them richer by . 30, on a 52-week average price. London-listed Vedanta will transfer its 38.8% stake in oil producer Cairn India as well as its debt of $5.9 billion for $1 to Sesa Sterlite. This will slash debt on Vedanta’s books, and earn it some brownie points from rating agencies. The combined debt of the group hit $9.65 billion after the near-$9 billion acquisition of Cairn’s India assets. With better ratings, Vedanta’s borrowing costs overseas could fall: the company reckons that the merger will save it about $200 million a year. Sesa Sterlite will be listed in India and the NYSE, becoming the world’s seventh-largest minerals and metals player, with a 58.9% holding in Cairn. Unlike group company Vedanta Aluminium, Cairn has strong cash flows, and after the restructuring, it can raise low-cost loans on behalf of the parent. Agarwal says that Sesa Sterlite will become the main vehicle for future acquisitions as he tries to take the group to the league of companies like Brazil’s Vale, Australia’s BHP Billiton, et al. 
Agarwal believes, correctly, that a metal-only company can be subject to massive global shocks, the likes of which forced Vale to diversify into coal and other minerals. The purchase of Cairn’s oil assets allowed Vedanta to diversify away from aluminium, copper and zinc. It is also trying to enter the coal business, now reserved for government, except for some captive mines. We have argued against both state monopoly and captive mining, and, instead, for opening up the coal sector to competition. These policy changes, along with a transparent system of auctioning mining leases and compensating people affected by mining, will boost the efficiency of India’s resources sector. With proper rules, specialised prospecting and mining companies will enter India, and the government must make sure they act in an environmentally-responsible manner. Then, we shall have national champions in the resources sector.

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National Shame

Police and authorities need to get serious about rape, instead of blaming the victim

    Shocking instances of rape continue to hit the headlines, along with the tendency of police and administrators to blame the victim. The two trends reinforce each other. If the system gives the rapist a reasonable chance to get away with his crime, then it is unable to deter rape. The epidemic of rape incidents across the country once again draws attention to the urgent need to transform our legal and police systems. Five men raped a 17-year-old girl in a moving car in Noida last Friday, while earlier this month a 37-year-old mother of two was raped in the heart of Kolkata’s upscale Park Street. Another woman has been gangraped trying to resist dacoits looting passengers of a local train in West Bengal’s Burdwan district. UP witnesses at least two rapes every day. 
    What gives cause for dismay is the police’s cavalier attitude towards victims. More often than not, traumatised victims have to battle law enforcers’ social and gender prejudices, manifest in loaded comments about the victims’ moral character and lifestyle. While the police, and even Bengal’s transport minister, made humiliating and suggestive remarks about the Park Street rape victim’s late-night pub drinking, the Noida police made insinuating comments about the minor victim. Worse still, in a complete breach of protocol, the police revealed the victim’s name and address to the media. 
    Given this sweeping gender bias and insensitivity, victims are more often than not reluctant to seek police intervention – making it easy for the rapist to get away. Police and political authorities across the country need to start treating rape as a heinous crime, and put in place some serious deterrents. A start can be made by instituting a fair number of dedicated rape cells, staffed mainly by policewomen. Victims would find it easier to share information with women officers, rather than be interrogated by their male counterparts. Additionally, gender sensitisation must be a part of police training itself. 
    It must be stressed here that the answer is not more legislation that merely scales up the quantum of punishment. The answer, rather, is to give teeth to the law by enforcing it. Let’s not forget that conviction rate of crimes against women, despite many legislative amendments, is still a depressing 27% for rape and molestation. Reforming police and judicial procedures in ways that allow speedy and consistent enforcement of existing laws, will go a long way towards assuring justice to victims and deterring further crimes against women.

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Engage, don't vilify

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's remarks about foreign-funded NGOs stalling the introduction of genetically modified food and the commissioning of the Kudankulam nuclear power project are bound to be taken seriously by his supporters and detractors alike. For, they do not merely represent an uncharacteristic venture by him into controversial territory, but may indicate his government's growing frustration over its plans running into fierce ideological opposition. When Dr. Singh, who has a reputation for reticence on sensitive subjects, drops dark hints about a foreign hand, it is surely something that needs to be substantiated and, if necessary, followed up with action. As if to bolster his argument, the licences of three NGOs have been cancelled and the foreign remittances received by them are being investigated. Meanwhile, the People's Movement Against Nuclear Energy, the organisation spearheading the anti-Kudankulam protests, has rejected the charge and demanded the Prime Minister substantiate his remarks. Adding to the mix, Jairam Ramesh has also clarified that his decision as Environment Minister in 2010 to place a moratorium on Bt Brinjal was not influenced by NGOs, but was based on objective factors.

Dr. Singh cannot be faulted for his view that science and technology should serve as instruments for raising the standard of living of the people, and it is entirely understandable that he wants everyone, including his critics, to appreciate the development challenges faced by India and its energy requirements. At a time when agriculture badly needs infusion of technology and when a chronic power shortage is crippling economic activity in States such as Tamil Nadu, it is hardly surprising that the government looks at all opposition to genetic engineering and nuclear power as suspect. However, the idea that NGOs with ‘foreign' links are fuelling the protests seems more expedient than convincing. The charge is also, at some level, quite irrelevant. For what it's worth, tens of thousands of ordinary Indians around Kudankulam, Jaitapur and other areas where reactors will be sited are apprehensive about what the placement of large nuclear installations in their backyard might mean for their health, environment and livelihood. The government needs to engage with them in a transparent and constructive manner and allay their fears with facts and arguments rather than innuendo and slander. The same is true for those sections of the farming and scientific communities who want a careful review of the consequences of genetic engineering before its indiscriminate adoption in the country. Their concerns are best answered by science and reason, not the implied threat of a midnight knock.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/article2935699.ece

The mood’s different

Any discussion on the Godhra murders and the subsequent religious riots that engulfed Gujarat beginning this day 10 years ago inevitably ends up becoming an argument over Narendra Modi. However, to be fair to Gujarat’s cataclysmic summer of 2002, and to the 1,044 people (790 Muslims and 254
Hindus) killed that year, it is necessary to look at the wider legacy of those events. This is not to defend or attack Modi; that is a separate issue and the subject of a separate, though not entirely unrelated, debate. The point is that it is important to see the broader implications of the Gujarat riots without necessarily reducing them to a slanging match over one individual.

Gujarat was not the first major religious riot in post-Partition India and not the worst either in terms of human loss. Why then does it stand out and why are its memories so marked? Why is the perception that Gujarat 2002 was singularly abominable — which in comparison to previous and similar events it was not — so difficult to erase? Indeed which are the forces that have made Gujarat bigger than previous such infractions — and, paradoxically, do they carry the potential to ensure that Gujarat 2002 is also India’s last major riot?

Three features of Gujarat 2002 are worth noting. First, the degree of popular participation was remarkably high. Religious riots, as any police officer from Malegaon to Maliana will tell you, usually involve a minuscule percentage of the population. In the three days after February 27, Gujarat police officers told this writer in 2002 that — and they were citing FIRs and plain surmise — two million people came out on the streets.

Gujarat had a population of 50 million in 2002: 88% Hindu, 9% Muslim. Of this 32 million were voters and aged above 18. As such 4% of the populace and over 6% of all adults were riot participants. In purely numerical, value-neutral terms, this would constitute a mass movement. The degree of social approbation for the events that followed the Godhra train massacre was significant. It can’t be explained as merely the act of a small core of masterminds.

Second, Gujarat 2002 was an anachronism, a 20th century riot in 21st century India. In its narrative and its mobilisation techniques it was no different from the riots of, say, Calcutta (1964), Ahmedabad itself (1969), Bhagalpur (1989) and Bombay (1993). In its background — the sedulous radicalisation of sections of Muslims, the conversion of underworld figures who happened to be Muslim into Islamist warriors, the transformation of Hindutva from a political idea into an ugly and unwholesome street phenomenon that habitually challenged the law — Gujarat 2002 encapsulated so much of the wrenching emotionalism of the mid-1980s and early-90s.

Yet it was also a phenomenon past its time. Gujarat represented an autarkic economy riot in the era of globalisation. In the past 10 years, Modi and his government have made adroit use of the opportunities of globalisation, and turned Gujarat into an extraordinary economic powerhouse. Ironically, they have also been impeded by another manifestation of global networking, one that uses the same tools and communication technologies as its business counterpart — the globalisation of causes and concerns, of protest and activism and ultimately of soft power.

Middle class attitudes are increasingly influenced by these aspects of globalisation. This has had one major consequence: a declining tolerance for violence in the very urban centres that saw the worst religious riots 25 years ago. If there are still fears about jihadist terrorism and national security, these flow more from their ability to interrupt India’s economic treadmill. The propellant is no longer raw emotion, or prejudice for the sake of prejudice. There is a growing sense that direct action cannot be a substitute for strict law enforcement.

As an economy attains critical mass, it transcends adventurism, real or even rhetorical. This is often the basis of political conservatism. After 2002, middle India crossed that inflection point.

Combined with this creeping economic hard-headedness is the presence of an over-intrusive media, Indian and global. This has meant that aberrations are suicidal. For instance, the political cost of a riot has gone up prohibitively; especially following 9/11, any juxtaposition of the phenomena ‘religion’ and ‘violence’ is unlikely to be viewed benignly. The media shows — maybe overstates — horrific pictures, builds revulsion and invites international pressure. Gujarat 2002 is a case in point. It is a ‘victim’ of globalisation, almost as much as Gujarat 2012 — the economic success story — is a ‘creature’ of globalisation.

Third, at the end of 2002, Gujarat saw an assembly election that was compelling but also disturbing. It reflected a polarised society and the BJP exploited this mood. It was reminiscent of the Congress election advertisements of 1984, which too sought to demonise the ‘other’ and scare voters into backing the party.

While this is undeniable, it is equally true that — despite what Modi’s opponents may contend — that degree of polarisation is no longer present in Gujarat. The state has moved on, and to say this in no way mitigates the need to deliver justice to those who died in 2002 or to punish their killers. It also leaves us with the hope that Gujarat — and India — are done with blockbuster religious riots for good.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorial-views-on/Edits/The-mood-s-different/Article1-817544.aspx

First past the boast

Cong threatens President’s rule in UP if it doesn’t get the numbers. Who is it trying to impress?

Of course, Union minister Sriprakash Jaiswal isn’t deluded into believing Congress will get 200-plus seats and form the next government in Lucknow, to hell with everybody else. So when he suggests the Congress will form the government in Uttar Pradesh or it will be Congress rule by other means — that is, President’s rule — it’s more than macho polltalk. His colleague and general secretary in charge of UP, Digvijaya Singh, said the same thing earlier. Taken together, both statements point to a peculiarly Congress syndrome. While India’s politics has transformed in the last two decades, opening up to new players and becoming more competitive, the Grand Old Party, now under the leadership of the Angry Young Man, remains resolutely frozen in a long-ago political moment. Incredibly enough, it appears to have gone through the motions of alliance-making since 2004 when Sonia Gandhi first reached out a hand to allies in the run-up to Lok Sabha polls, without learning the realism or the humility necessary to that process. Even after running a coalition at the Centre for nearly eight long years, it’s yet to unlearn the art of alienating friends and antagonising possible allies.

As UP winds its way towards the end of its seven-phase poll process, the dominant common sense points to a close contest, if not a hung verdict. In that scenario, government formation would necessarily require parties to join hands and participate in a process of give-and-take — not at all an unusual compulsion in a state where the last government was the first in nearly two decades to achieve a clear majority. Statements such as those made by Messrs Singh and Jaiswal do not just threaten to queer their party’s pitch, they also resonate unhappily among the Congress’s restive allies at the Centre.

The Trinamool Congress, for one, has complained loudly about not being consulted by its senior partner in major decisions and policies of UPA 2. The DMK is also easily cast in the role of the resentful ally. For both regional parties, such loose talk of President’s rule would only confirm their worst fears about Congress arrogance. Be it UP or at Centre, and if only for reasons of political correctness, the Congress needs to acknowledge that the days it could brandish President’s rule as a means to subdue opponents, or to get the better of a difficult situation, are long past. It pays to be humble a week before the verdict.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/first-past-the-boast/917016/0

Bravo, MCX!

Bravo, MCX!

The bourse’s public issue success holds out three positive messages

    The initial public offering (IPO) from the country’s largest commodity exchange by volume has been a huge success, by conventional standards, having been oversubscribed 54 times. It does credit to MCX and its promoters, who found the courage to go ahead with the IPO in a climate that many have found forbidding. It sends out a positive message on three different counts. One, it should encourage other companies that have been holding back on their public issue plans. The lesson from MCX’s success is clear: if your company and the price at which you are offering it to investors together create a value proposition, investors would lap it up, regardless of the immediate sentiment in the market. Two, the government should shed its diffidence over its divestment plans. Not only ONGC but other state-owned companies that have been under consideration for disinvestment are likely to be welcomed by investors, at the right price. Three, exchanges are eminently suited for listing. There is an archaic view, which got a boost from the Bimal Jalan committee report on ownership and governance of market infrastructure institutions, that bourses are natural monopolies and should not be listed. Now, MCX is a commodity exchange and not a stock exchange. As such, its IPO leading to its listing does not, by itself, repudiate the Jalan committee view that as a first-level regulator and a public utility, a stock exchange should seek ‘reasonable profits’ and not behave in the conventional profit-maximising mode of listed businesses. Since banks, which are part of the payments system and perform a public utility function, only gain by virtue of being listed, competing businesses, there is no reason to believe otherwise about stock exchanges. The MCX public issue does strengthen the view that exchanges are businesses in a space open to contestation that does not, aided and guided as it is by regulation, minimise public welfare. 
The extent of oversubscription of the issue suggests the issue was underpriced. This is not a great result for the issuer, even if good for the investor. Other issuers can try to avoid this flaw that many overlook while celebrating oversubscription of a public issue.
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Honour The Mandate

Honour The Mandate

Congress is making a mistake by projecting President’s rule in UP

    Union coal minister and Congress leader Sriprakash Jaiswal’s recent statement that the Congress will seek imposition of President’s rule in UP, if his party fails to secure a majority in the state, sends a negative signal to the electorate. Even Digvijay Singh recently underlined the possibility of President’s rule in UP, while Rahul Gandhi said during his campaign that the Congress would have no post-poll truck with any party. If the Congress leadership is contemplating imposition of President’s rule in UP in case of a hung assembly, nothing could be more disastrous. 
    The game plan that’s reportedly being advocated by a section of Congress leaders is to declare President’s rule, push in good bureaucrats, pump money into the state, and fuel fast-paced development that will stand the Congress in good stead around the time of the next Lok Sabha polls. That surely is desperate counsel. Congress already has a stake in governing many states, why can’t it pursue this strategy in the states it controls? What are the chances it will be able to do in UP what it can’t do in other states? 
    Besides, if President’s rule comes because the current Congress-RLD alliance is reluctant to share power with SP, the latter too would spurn the UPA government at the Centre, leaving it wholly at the mercy of the mercurial Mamata. That will, in all likelihood, disable the UPA from carrying out any significant policy initiatives in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha polls. Also, let’s not forget that elections are still underway in UP and massive voter turnouts reflect people’s aspirations for change and better governance. By holding out the prospect of President’s rule Congress is hurting its own cause, besides undermining electoral democracy. 
    The fundamental problem could be that Congress is still stuck in its 1998 Pachmarhi resolution mode, according to which it should eschew alliances and build its own strength. That is hardly advisable now, given Congress’s dipping popularity due to big-ticket scams as well as stagflationary conditions in the economy. What makes things worse is Congress’s inability to project a definite chief ministerial candidate in UP, behind whom support for the party can consolidate. The party needs to realise that it has no alternative other than building coalitions at the state level. RLD is too minor a player to matter.
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Frightening fisc

Everyone is losing sleep over deficit. Mukherjee has three weeks to show that govt is waking up

The government’s finances are in a mess. But its gravity has not really sunk in. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed serious concern on fiscal stability in his New Year address. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said he is getting sleepless nights thinking of subsidies and deficits. But politics has held back both leaders, and the entire Congress, from taking even small steps to deregulate diesel prices. High global crude oil prices have increased the subsidy outgo for the year by Rs 1 lakh crore. With a mitigation of the eurozone crisis and a pick-up in the US economy, crude oil prices are only expected to sustain their current high price levels. So, the subsidy burden will rise dramatically next year.

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, chaired by C. Rangarajan, sounded the latest alarm on the government’s worsening finances. Not only does it expect the Centre to slip in meeting its fiscal deficit target for 2011-12, the council also foresees difficult times ahead. Privately, some of its members exchanged notes with the PMO and the Planning Commission about the deterioration of the government’s financial health, much before the EAC released its review of the economy for 2011-12 on Wednesday. It will be foolish to think economic ministers do not know what to do, but all await a political green signal. Politicians still do not reckon that high fiscal deficits will put pressure on interest rates besides leaving little resources for the private sector. This, in turn, can slow down growth and mar the job prospects of millions entering the labour market every year. Surely, this will not happen overnight but the economic situation may get really nasty when they face general elections again in the first half of 2014.

The recipe is clear — set a deadline for completely deregulating prices of diesel and other petroleum products in a phased manner, withdraw the fiscal stimulus imparted in the aftermath of the 2008 global meltdown and pursue policy reforms vigorously. Of course, action on subsidies requires support from allies. The Congress, that leads the UPA, must start building consensus, because fiscal stability is the backbone of economic security. India could hold its head high post-1991 only because it managed its fiscal resources well. It must get back to the path of prudence by putting in place a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation programme. Mukherjee has exactly three weeks to do this.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/frightening-fisc/915890/0

Try a little kindness

Has Gujarat really moved on ten years after the terrible violence of 2002? The answer depends on who the question is asked to. Chief minister Narendra Modi, for example, claims to have moved on to the point where he refuses to take questions on the past. In February 2002, Modi was a relatively low profile RSS pracharak-turned-chief minister with no administrative experience. The riots transformed him into a tough-talking ‘saviour’ of the Hindus; he even undertook a Gujarat ‘gaurav’ yatra, though one is uncertain what was the ‘pride’ involved in failing to prevent the deaths of more than 1,000 Gujaratis, apart from exploiting religious sentiment to garner votes. Today, Modi has undertaken a ‘sadbhavana’ yatra, has marginalised the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), is seen as a potential BJP prime ministerial candidate in 2014 and is a chief minister with a formidable reputation for good governance.

Travel through the riot-hit areas of Gujarat and on the surface it appears that 2002 is a distant memory. In Halol town of  Panchmahals district, which saw mass killings with dozens of  homes burnt, a gleaming General Motors factory now stands, part of a special economic zone and another potent symbol of  Modi’s ‘Vibrant Gujarat’. In Godhra, where the S-6 compartment was burnt, Hindu and Muslim traders are striking partnerships that reflect the quintessential Gujarati ethos: “Gujarat’s business is business,” they tell me. In Vadodara, a cricket camp is being held not too far from the Best Bakery massacre site: young Muslim boys here dream of  becoming the next Irfan Pathan.
In Ahmedabad, there is an unmistakable sense of optimism in the air. Recent surveys have placed Ahmedabad as India’s most liveable city. The Ahmedabad Bus Rapid Transport System is a role model for urban transport while the airport has a spanking new look. The city looks cleaner than ever before, the slum encroachments along the Sabarmati river bank have been cleared with China-like precision, the malls are crowded and the hotels are full. Amitabh Bachchan’s high profile Gujarat tourism promotion drive has seen a 40% rise in tourism, and  corporates are scrambling to climb onto the Gujarat growth engine. At a business outsourcing centre, the young professionals insist there will never be a repeat of 2002. Ask them who their role model is, and you know just why Modi is favoured to win another term in office later this year.
And yet, step away from the bright lights, the question ‘Has Gujarat really moved on?’ acquires another dimension. In Godhra’s Signal Falia basti where most of the accused in the train burning incident lived, the young tell me they are jobless because no one will give employment to Muslim youth with Signal Falia as the address. The fact that a majority of those who were arrested have since been acquitted has only added to their sense of grievance at being labelled ‘terrorists’. Families of kar sevaks who were charred to death are equally emphatic: no mercy must be shown.
In the crowded bylanes of Shahpur in Ahmedabad’s walled city, where Hindus and Muslims have lived cheek by jowl for years, physical proximity can’t hide the mental scarring. Even today, the slightest provocation can spark off a mini-riot here. Those who can afford it have moved out. Ahmedabad perhaps has fewer mixed neighbourhoods than any other city of its size; Muslims are not welcome in Hindu areas and vice-versa. Inter-religious marriages are virtually unheard of.
In Naroda Patiya, an Ahmedabad suburb, where 95 people were killed, the riot-affected families are still fighting for justice. No one has been convicted yet, and many of those allegedly responsible for the killings still roam around freely in the area. Justice seems elusive, with a distinct lack of faith in a law enforcement machinery that is seen to be biased against minorities. “We will still fight,” a pint-sized lady who lost eight family members and is now a prime witness in the Naroda case, tells me. I wonder how ordinary people can show such extraordinary courage in times of adversity.
It is this indefatigable human spirit that stands out everywhere. In Citizen Nagar, a resettlement colony for riot victims on the outskirts of  Ahmedabad, the residents live near the city’s biggest garbage dump. Gujarat isn’t ‘vibrant’ here: the tin shed rooms, and the dirt and squalor would make a Mumbai slum seem palatial. The area appears to have literally fallen off  the map, there are no schools, medical facilities or basic sanitation available here. As one spirited lady puts it, “We may be living in Citizen Nagar, but we are after all, second-class citizens!”
It is this sense of a growing chasm between two Gujarats that is worrying: one Gujarat which is aspirational and upwardly mobile, the other that is angry and alienated. The Modi government’s recipe to bridge the gap has been to relentlessly focus on the ‘development’ mantra: double digit growth is seen to be the only balm to heal the wounds of  the past.
But high growth without the human touch can never really achieve true reconciliation between communities. At Sabarmati Ashram, home to the greatest Gujarati ever, I meet with Dara and Rupa Mody, a Parsi couple who lost their teenage son in the Gulberg society massacre. Their son’s body has never been found and they still grieve for him. In the last decade, not once has the chief  minister or anyone from the government even visited them to share their tears. It’s the same story for almost all riot victims. It is this absence of  remorse or any sense of  compassion that reduces Modi’s attempts at image makeovers into little more than made for television photo-ops.
‘Sadbhavana’, as Gandhi saw it, is ultimately about kindness and compassion that rises above religious divides. It’s a spirit that Gujarat needs to rediscover to bring a genuine closure to the horror of 2002.
Rajdeep Sardesai is editor-in-chief, IBN 18 Network
rajdeep.sardesai@network18online.com
The views expressed by the author are personal

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/816078.aspx

Grounding the disabled

The case of a woman passenger with cerebral palsy rudely deplaned by SpiceJet is a terrible reminder of the distance India still needs to travel in recognising and respecting the human rights of disabled people. Even a decade ago, it would have been rare to see a passenger on a wheelchair or with a white cane at an Indian airport. The increasing mobility of the general population in recent years has opened new doors for the elderly and the disabled as well. But last Sunday's incident in Kolkata is a cautionary tale about the arbitrariness with which those doors can be slammed shut. The deplaning of Jeeja Ghosh, a faculty member at the Indian Institute of Cerebral Palsy, is a repeat of a widely-publicised 2007 case when the now defunct Sahara Airlines refused to fly a wheelchair-bound passenger out of Chennai. The outcry which followed led the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to adopt guidelines which state categorically that no airline can refuse to fly persons with disability and reduced mobility. International norms also permit disabled passengers to carry assistive aids, including guide dogs by the blind. Moreover, the medical disqualifications on travel prescribed by the International Air Transport Authority do not apply to persons with cerebral palsy. Clearly, the captain in question was blissfully ignorant of these regulations. Worse still, he enforced his will, paying scant regard to the inconvenience and trauma this would cause a passenger who had paid for her journey and already been seated like every other person on board.

It is time the aviation industry got its act together on sensitising its personnel about handling passengers with particular needs. For his part, Union Minister for Social Justice Mukul Wasnik should impress upon his counterpart in the Civil Aviation ministry the need to discipline those who wilfully flouted the DGCA's guidelines in this case. A major weakness of the Persons with Disabilities (Equal Opportunities, Protection of Rights and Full Participation) Act, 1995, is the absence of a punitive clause. This is arguably the reason why its provisions remain poorly implemented. The United Progressive Alliance government is debating fresh legislation on persons with disabilities. A test of its commitment to guarantee basic rights and equal opportunities for this segment of the population will be whether it addresses this major shortcoming. Jeeja Ghosh could not fly that day because India's disability law is up in the air. It is time to bring it down to earth, anchoring it firmly in the terrain of equality that our Constitution envisages for all citizens.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/article2925162.ece

Liquidity Preference

How to unlock the large amounts of savings going to waste in gold

    Fixing the disrupted system of distributing saving products — mutual funds, insurance and pensions — is the key to drawing Indian investors away from their damaging obsession with gold. Billionaire Warren Buffett recently wrote that gold was a valueless asset: it is intrinsically worthless. It is priced high simply because a lot of people believe that it has value. Indians don’t share Buffett’s scorn for gold: we’re the second-largest consumer of gold in the world after China, which recently usurped our place at the head of the table. India’s gold imports suck out hard currency in exchange for an asset that will be stored in lockers, doing nothing productive for the economy. Can anything be done to curb India’s appetite for gold? Traded gold funds need to be backed by actual stocks of gold and allow people to own and trade it without physically buying, holding and selling the metal. These do nothing to reduce the demand for gold. Gold loans and deposits allow people to exchange gold for cash, with the metal as collateral. Unless someone buys up the collateral and exports it for cash, the economy’s gold holding does not go down. It is not easy to churn unproductive gold into productive liquid investments. But there are systemic ways to achieve this objective. 
Many Indian equity investors shifted to gold after losing heavily in the crash of 2008 and 2009. Yet, in the long run, equities always do better than gold in terms of returns. But an attempt by Sebi to trim the fat commissions of mutual fund agents that had knock-on effects paring the commissions of insurance agents, has whittled down the growth of both mutual funds and insurance. The National Pension System also had a very poor incentive structure in place for distribution until recently, and has never taken off properly, as potential savers just are not aware of the scheme’s superior benefits. As for small saving schemes, inflation has eroded their appeal and there are no inflation-indexed bonds on offer. In the absence of financial saving options, savers have fallen back on the traditional store of value: gold. Fixing the distribution incentives would appear to be the solution to mass desertion of financial saving products for gold.
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Federal Fetish

The term shouldn’t mean knee-jerk opposition to anything emanating from the Centre

The objection to the establishment of the National Counter Terrorism Centre by as many as 12 chief ministers highlights a common theme that has been plaguing governance. For the last six months, ‘federalism’ has been the war cry used to stymie policy decisions and important legislations ranging from the Lokpal Bill and FDI in multi-brand retail to the goods and services tax (GST), the Teesta water-sharing agreement with Bangladesh, amending the RPF Act to give some police powers to the Railway Protection Force. While federalism is indeed a fundamental pillar of the Constitution, it shouldn’t be misused for scoring political points. The framers of the Constitution envisaged the Centre and the states as two co-dependent wheels of the nation. If they are to constantly move in opposite directions, governance paralysis rather than federalism is the most likely outcome.
Under the constitutional scheme of things, states have certain legislative prerogatives as enumerated in the state list. In addition, they also have a say on subjects in the concurrent list. But given 21st century realities such as global terrorism, treating law and order as an exclusive state subject is imprudent. Faced with well-networked international jihadi groups, a credible national security policy demands a coordinated mechanism wherein the states and the Centre work in tandem. Similarly, corruption is a malaise affecting the administrative structure from top to bottom. If a Lokpal is rightly demanded at the Centre, could the fight against graft be effective without Lokayuktas in the states?
The current state of affairs partly stems from an underlying lack of trust in the UPA leadership. Wracked by a series of scams implicating top government officials as well as by skyrocketing prices, the central government appears ineffectual and infirm. But the states too stand guilty of failing to see the big picture. Their intransigence on positive policies such as GST and FDI in retail – which can boost revenue collection, increase investments and cut prices – is cynical. Surely if the Centre isn’t allowed to do its job, then states will fail as well.
In this respect the BJP’s obstructionist role stands out, as it’s a national party. That hasn’t stopped it from using its state governments to stoke the federalism fire, in order to stonewall policies it would have supported if it was in power. But it must realise that if it were to form the next government at the Centre, the same problem would boomerang on it as states would refuse to cooperate with the Centre, making it difficult to govern effectively.
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Needed, Political Will

Needed, Political Will

To carry out prescriptions of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council

    The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC) headed by Dr C Rangarajan expects the economy to grow by 7.5% to 8% in 2012-13. But this is contingent on some assumptions: a relative lack of external shocks, fiscal consolidation and a pick up in fixed capital formation, which has slipped, as a proportion of GDP, by four percentage points over the last four years, to fall below 30% this fiscal. The Council’s Review of the Economy is constrained to talk only in terms of economics. It is not its job to talk of the political resolve that is required to make some of these growth-friendly assumptions come true. But, in the real world, taking tough decisions such as cutting oil subsidies, so as to reduce the fiscal deficit and “phase out… suppressed inflation on account of incomplete cost pass-through” calls more for political toughness than for economic savvy. A major factor hindering investment in the economy has been drift and dither in decision-making. Loss of political authority after a series of scams hit the government and botched attempts to tackle the anti-corruption agitation launched by Anna Hazare contributed to that drift and dither. Restoring political authority and exhibiting the political will and resoluteness that are required to administer bitter medicine are not things that the learned Dr Rangarajan can prescribe, but what the economy needs is nothing short of that. 
Receding chances of fresh financial turbulence in the eurozone, which the EAC counts as a favourable external factor, might well persuade investors to deploy abundant global liquidity with greater zeal in commodities, including oil. Rising crude prices suggest this is already happening. This makes it all the more imperative that the government decontrol oil prices, scrap diesel subsidy and allow independent marketing of fuels. Widespread black marketing of fertilisers in north India suggests that scrapping fertiliser subsidy is both feasible and necessary. Farmers already pay a high price and the industry needs incentive to make fresh investment in the sector, and raise output. Similarly, power theft must be stamped out. What growth calls for, in short, is political will.

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Step Back Now

Step Back Now

Government shouldn’t tamper with the Election Commission’s powers

    The government’s assurance that it’s not considering a proposal to whittle down the Election Commission’s powers is welcome. We hope it means that the move to curb the EC’s powers of enforcing its model code of electoral conduct is definitively scuttled. The clarification comes on the back of a spiralling controversy over a government proposal to give statutory shape to the code of conduct, strongly opposed by the EC as well as opposition parties as it would take enforcement out of the EC’s hands. It’s good that all-round outrage has forced the government to clear the air. But it also needs to abide by its public assurance, and desist from any move that would debilitate a vibrant and effective institution like the EC. 
    At the heart of the controversy is the EC’s high-profile model code of conduct, effectively leveraged to rein in political parties and leaders from conducting extravagant poll campaigns or making snappy policy announcements in the midst of electoral canvassing. Consider the EC’s recent censure of UPA cabinet ministers Salman Khurshid and Beni Prasad Verma, following their violation of the code by announcing new sops for Muslims in the midst of UP’s poll campaign. That the ministers subsequently dared the EC to make good its reprimand was bad enough. But any plans that the government may have up its sleeves to clip the EC’s wings would be much worse. 
    Providing statutory backing to the electoral code of conduct is a bad idea that shouldn’t be entertained. What it would mean is that the EC wouldn’t be able to look at violations of the code. Instead they would be tried in a court of law, making them a long-drawn-out, dilatory affair that would further weigh down an already overburdened judiciary. It would be a drastic departure from present norms, under which the EC hands out swift orders against unruly and irresponsible politicians in the midst of hectic electioneering. 
    At a time when the nation is exercised over the failure of institutions to deliver, any attempt to diminish the efficacy of the EC, one of the few institutions that’s delivering what it’s supposed to, is inexplicable. By ensuring safe conditions for voters to turn out in maximum numbers and conducting free and fair elections even in politically sensitive parts of the country, the EC has won nationwide prestige and acclaim. One of the things Indians can be genuinely proud of is that the country has an independent and effective Election Commission. Let’s keep it that way.

Working for labour

If the country's trade unions expected progress on the vexed question of a minimum wage guarantee at the 44th Indian Labour Conference, their hopes may have been dashed by the United Progressive Alliance government. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's inaugural address last week made no mention of implementing a National Floor Level Minimum Wage (NFLMW). Never mind that the application of the 1948 law to all establishments irrespective of the number of workers engaged was uppermost on the conference agenda. The current NFLMW fixed by the Centre in April 2011 is Rs.115 a day. But under the 1948 law, States are free to set their own minimum. As a result, the rates range from a maximum of Rs.203 a day in the National Capital Region of Delhi, to a meagre 68.96 in Andhra Pradesh as on March 2011. Significantly, as many as 21 States still fall below the national minimum, whereas 14 pay wages above that amount. Amendments to the Minimum Wages Act are thus critical to a guaranteed subsistence income for millions of unskilled labourers, including women, who fall well below the standard human development indicators.

Similarly, the Prime Minister's statements on social security for employees amount to an endorsement of the erroneous view that the protections currently available to the organised sector are coming in the way of job creation. “We must periodically take a critical look [at] whether our regulatory framework has some parts which unnecessarily hamper the growth of employment, enterprise and industry without really contributing significantly to labour welfare,” said Dr. Singh. There is a particularly hollow ring to these remarks made in the context of a country where employment in the organised sector constitutes barely seven per cent of the total workforce. Implicit in this is the reasoning that expenditure on the workforce is a burden, rather than a necessary investment to enhance value and raise the productivity of enterprises. It is necessary to emphasise here that in countries that have embarked upon the deregulation of labour markets, social and welfare protection mechanisms exist which provide a society-wide cushion to the unemployed or indigent. Moreover, attempts to dismantle these protections have met with strong public protests, particularly in Europe. India's trade unions have had a considerable and highly constructive presence in the banking, insurance and telecommunications industries in the public sector for some decades now. While they have time and again opposed the divestment of government stakes in these enterprises, an inability to organise the workforce in the information and communications technology sector has been a singular failure. It is time the concerns of this segment were also addressed.

Keywords: Indian Labour Conference, minimum wages, National Floor Level Minimum Wage, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Europe, labour markets