Putin Returns
He should try the path of reform now, for the sake of his legacy
Defying critics, Vladimir Putin won his third term as the president of Russia after a gap of four years. Putin’s return will mark continuity from New Delhi’s point of view. Even as prime minister during the last term, he held the effective reins of power. But his return to the Kremlin has hardly been smooth sailing. Whether it will lead to stability in Russia’s managed democracy, remains to be seen. Trouble started last year when the Russian strongman publicly announced his intention to swap places with outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev. With pro-democracy movements in the Arab world going on at the same time, the brazenness of the declaration riled the Russian public. Things went from bad to worse during the parliamentary elections in December. Marred by widespread allegations of vote rigging, Putin’s popularity took a plunge as protests against him intensified.
Against this backdrop, Russia’s presidential poll results can be read in two ways. First, the popular protests against Putin are being led by the disenchanted urban middle class. A decade of economic growth, fuelled mainly by gas and oil revenues, has also led to its growth in numbers. This in turn has heightened expectations of long-pending governance reforms. But Putin’s core constituency continues to be the working class in Russia’s hinterland. Indebted to Putin for pulling them out of the economic doldrums of the 1990s, as long as they have a stake in Russia’s managed democracy, Putin has nothing to worry about.
But the realities that face Putin today are very different from the last time he was in office. Europe, Russia’s largest energy export market, is in slowdown mode. Increase in energy prices comparable to the last decade is not assured. Failure to diversify the Russian economy will hurt Russians across the board, making it difficult to put a lid on popular frustrations. In such a scenario, Putin can’t continue with the old style of functioning. Along with initiating genuine political reforms, he must break the hold of the wealthy oligarchs and take on the crony capitalism that plagues Russian society.
This might appear counter-intuitive to Putin, but strong-arm tactics to maintain political stability are no longer feasible. Trying to muzzle popular protests in the era of growing internet penetration is subject to diminishing returns. Russia needs a new social contract between its people and the government. As Putin begins his third term, he must start thinking of his legacy. If he wants to be remembered as Russia’s saviour, he must push reforms now.
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